When Malam Isa Yuguda ditched the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and declared his intention to contest the April 14, 2007 governorship election on the platform of the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), pundits were skeptical about his chances of winning the election.
He had been disqualified from the contest by the state chapter of the PDP.
The skepticisms were not because Malam, as he is fondly called, as he remained a popular candidate but because of certain obvious unfavorable political forces determined to frustrate his political ambition by all means.
The pundits never believed that Yuguda possessed the much needed political and financial wherewithal to effectively challenge and unseat the dominant political paradigm which un-interruptedly controlled and manipulated the political machinery of the state for eight years.
Keen political watchers also thought that it was difficult, if not totally impossible, for Yuguda to confront the candidate of the ruling party, Alhaji Nadada Umar, who not only had to his advantage the incumbency factor, but was also fully fortified by the strong PDP machinery at the state and the federal levels.
The need to ensure balance in the power equation between the three senatorial zones was also then seen as an obstacle to the realisation of Yuguda's ambition, having hailed from the same senatorial zone with the then incumbent governor, Adamu Mu'azu.
The skepticisms were further compounded by the myriad of sustained media blitz surrounding the performance of the Mu'azu-led PDP administration in the state.
The media, no doubt, succeeded in portraying Mu'azu as an achiever with some describing the ex governor as a 'desert magician'.
This probably explained why a section of the media even believed that it would take a man with 'a super Midas touch' to beat or equal the feat achieved by the Mu'azu administration.
To make the matter worse for Yuguda, the state, then, was 98 per cent controlled by PDP, the party that denied him right to contest for the governorship election.
The PDP then also controlled the 31-member State House of Assembly from May 29, 1999 to May 29, 2007, controlled 17 out of the 20 local council chairmen in 2000 and the entire 20 local government chairmen and their councillors from 2003-2007.
All the three elected senators from the state then were also of PDP extraction.
It is on record that the PDP also had the advantage of producing 98 per cent of the House of Representatives members from the state in 1999 and had won the entire seats in 2003.
This is in addition to having the Commissioners, Special Advisers, Special Assistants, members of boards of establishments and agencies as well as other political appointees in the state, as members of the same political family.
This, perhaps, explains why the outcome of the April 14, 2007 Governorship polls in Bauchi State is still a subject of academic discourse among political scientists.
The victory of Yuguda in 2007 was, therefore, seen by many as a '' revolution''.
Analysts argue that the 2007 gubernatorial election in Bauchi State re-enforces the people's power to determine their leaders and their future, despite the incumbency factor in a society generally considered conservative and not amenable to political changes.
The election, they say, also re-enforces the will of the people over tyranny, equity over injustice, determination over laxity.
Yuguda's victory in 2007 polls was made possible by the doggedness of the people through the famous “A kasa, A tsare, A raka” political programme, which literarily means: “Cast, protect and escort your votes”.
This was against the nasty experience of the electorate being robbed of their votes at the collation and declaration centres by some powerful politicians and bureaucrats.
Interestingly, the vanguards of the Bauchi 'revolution' were mostly the youth and the ordinary peasants.
Keen observers of development in the state have argued, however, that in as much as the Yuguda administration would want to deliver dividends of its revolution and meet the high expectations of the populace, it was saddled with a crippling debt of over N22 billion as against a monthly revenue of N1.7 billion.
There were also the problems of backlog of unpaid contracts, pension arrears, high maternal and child mortality, high level of illiteracy, abject poverty, general insecurity and massive unemployment among the youth.
Available records show that the administration also inherited a decayed infrastructure particularly in the education and health sectors. The records also show that apart from the problem of shortage of qualified teachers at both the primary and secondary schools, none of the secondary schools in the state could boast of a good and well equipped laboratory, library and clean source of water.
Statistics further show that more than 70 per cent of pupils in public primary schools in the state as at 2007, used mats, wood logs and stones as seats in dilapidated classrooms, particularly in the rural areas.
The records also show that majority of the public secondary schools are overcrowded with no fewer than 200 students in a class.
Also, about 60 per cent of the 15,000 teachers manning the 1,979 primary schools in the state were unqualified as most of them could not possess the National Certificate of Education (NCE), being the minimum teaching requirement in the country.
Worst still, statistics released by UNICEF also revealed that more than 1 million school age children in the state were out of school while no fewer than 380,000 girls of school age lacked access to education due to several years neglect suffered by the sector.
Also, before the inauguration of the Yuguda administration on May 29, 2007, Bauchi State was virtually taken over by restive youths, masquerading as ''Sara-Suka'' while police records showed that crime was on the increase.
On the health front, except the specialist hospital, Bauchi, which was rehabilitated by the Adamu Mu'azu administration, virtually all the 14 General Hospitals across the state were at best described as ''death camps'' due to their deplorable conditions and non-existence of basic medical equipment.
But three years into the tenure of the Yuguda administration, analysts say that there are now remarkable improvements in the social and economic development of the state.
The administration says it has so far executed more than 200 people-oriented projects across the three senatorial zones of the state.
In spite of the feat achieved by the administration so far, no fewer than nine governorship aspirants have emerged to wrestle power from Yuguda in 2011 election.
They include a former Comptroller-General of Prisons (CGP), Alhaji Ibrahim Jarma; a former Deputy Governor, Alhaji Abdulmalik Mahmoud; a businessman, Alhaji Adamu Danchina and a London-based businessman, Dr. Kasim Gidado.
Others are Alhaji Mahmoud Sadik, a former Chief of Staff to Gen. Abdulsalam Abubakar; a former Senator, Baba Tela as well as an architect, Alhaji Nuhu Gidado and Rep. Ibrahim Makama.
Jarma, who is from the Bauchi-North Senatorial District, had run for the office in 2003 on the platform of ANPP but lost to former Bauchi State Governor, Alhaji Adamu Mu'azu of PDP.
The former prisons boss says his decision to re-join politics is based on ``mutual consultation''.
``After mutual consultations with our leaders from all over our great and promising state, those great men and women of wisdom and understanding, I have decided to return to partisan politics and to run for the office of Governor of Bauchi State in the forthcoming general elections.
The former Prisons boss outlined a six-point agenda, including revenue generation, towards establishing a stable economic base to fast-track the development of business, commerce, industry, infrastructure, education and other services.
According to him, the creation of employment opportunities will also top his priority, while the state civil service will be re-structured “to restore its good name and past glory''.
``These laudable objectives are, however, only achievable with cooperation and loyal support, commitment and adherence to the ethics of hard work, industry and integrity. Jarma retired from service in 2002.
Mahmoud, who is also from the same senatorial district with Jarma, is described as ``a grassroots politician'' with substantial followers mostly in the northern part of the state.
In spite of his seeming popularity, the former deputy governor had run for the Bauchi-North Senatorial election in 2007 and lost to then Action Congress (AC) candidate, Sen. Nazif Gamawa.
Intriguingly, the former deputy governor had at a news conference after the defeat of the PDP candidate in the 2007 governorship election, admitted to have caused the defeat of his party and its candidate by leaking the secret of its campaign strategy to the then ANPP candidate, Malam Isa Yuguda.
Analysts say although Danchina, who is hopeful of hoisting the CPC flag in the governorship race, has the financial muscle required for such contest, his educational background and exposure might be a minus.
But he appears to enjoy an unsolicited support of Gen. Muhammadu Buhari.
Gidado, who is a London-based business tycoon, had many hurdles to cross. His long absence from the state might work against him. He had run for the same seat in 2007, but withdrew from the race shortly before the conduct of the PDP governorship primaries.
Sen. Tela, who hails from Bauchi-North Senatorial District, is believed to have the nod of some powerful people in Abuja. Although he is not as popular as some of the aspirants, he might spring surprises because of the status of those behind his candidacy.
Sadik, who like Danchina is hopeful of hoisting the flag of CPC, is also believed to have the support of some powerful Nigerians, including a former Head of State.
Nuhu Gidado is, however, regarded as a ''new entrant to politics'' and as such, may not have the necessary political clout to make an impact in the race to the Bauchi Government House, come 2011.
Makama hails from Bauchi-Central Senatorial District, a zone that has never produced governor in the 34-year history of the state. He has, however, recently defected to CPC, but says his defection will not affect his ambition.
Many women in the state are, however, not very much comfortable with the all-men dominated contest.
Hajiya Yelwa Tula, a renowned woman politician in Bauchi, is one of such women. She has called on women in the state to use their numerical strength to vote for women candidates at all levels of representation in the 2011 elections.
She urged the women to show greater interest in politics so as to ensure effective gender representation in governance.
``It is high time for women to mobilise themselves and work towards the protection of their common interest by showing interest in politics.
``We must wake up to change our social and economic status through active participation in the political processes.
``Politics cannot be left to men alone. We have all it takes to change the course of history through the electoral process.
``This can only be achieved if we mobilise ourselves by using our votes to elect credible and trusted leaders at all levels,'' the woman politician said.
Tula urged women in the state to close ranks and vote for gender-friendly candidates at various levels. She said: ``As mothers, it is important for us to mainly vote for candidates with the interest of women and children at heart.
``We are also working tirelessly to present women governorship, Senatorial and the House of Representatives candidates as well as for the state assembly.''
Some analysts are, however, quick to point out that if the feat achieved by the Yuguda administration is anything to go by, then, history will automatically repeat itself in 2011.
Alhaji Al-Amin Sani, a former state chairman of the Democratic Peoples Party (DPP), is one of such observers.
``If achievement is a yardstick for re-election, then, Yuguda can go to sleep because there will be no vacancy in Bauchi Government House till 2015.''
``The future, however, lies with the people of Bauchi State, their consciousness and their struggle,'' says an observer.
Adamu writes for NAN
